Research
Deep dives and their follow-on updates: a stated position up front, the evidence behind it, and pre-registered checks that grade the call in public.
2026
MOFCOM is right that no universal utilization threshold proves industrial overcapacity. The operating record does not support an economy-wide verdict: autos show strain, polysilicon remains unresolved, and anti-involution still needs verified exit.
Read the report →Iran says the coordinates are agreed; Oman says talks continue. The reported design could organize the next bargain. It leaves unsettled who can stop ships, who can insure them, and when mainstream passage resumes.
Read the update →Iran cannot seal the Strait of Hormuz, and has not needed to. Functional closure, one cargo class and one time-window at a time, is the durable weapon. Four days after the first edition, six of seven pre-registered Soundings had fired; The Log inside grades each one.
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