Research

Dispatches from the desk

Deep dives and their follow-on updates: a stated position up front, the evidence behind it, and pre-registered checks that grade the call in public.

2026

Published research

Geopolitical deep dive · Strait of Hormuz · Updated edition, data anchor 20 Jul 2026 · First edition 16 Jul 2026

Hours to Break, Months to Mend

Iran cannot seal the Strait of Hormuz, and has not needed to. Functional closure, one cargo class and one time-window at a time, is the durable weapon. Four days after the first edition, six of seven pre-registered Soundings had fired; The Log inside grades each one.

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